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License Agreement on scientific materials use.
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PECULIARITIES OF SALES FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS
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Viktor Dmitrievich Serbin
Southern Federal University
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Submitted:
June 1, 2015
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Abstract.
In the article the way aimed at improving sales forecasting method with the use of the additive model of time series is considered. Recommendations on the choice of the type of trend and procedure for calculating seasonal variations are provided. The possibilities of sales forecasting both in continuous mode using the entire set of input data for two or three years, and with the use of the latest data, which are the closest to the forecast point are studied. The method of improving the accuracy of forecast is shown. All recommendations are verified by the test case.
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Key words and phrases:
прогнозирование объемов продаж
временной ряд
тренд
сезонные отклонения
точность расчетов показателей прогнозирования
sales forecasting
time series
trend
seasonal variations
accuracy of calculation of forecasting indicators
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