RELIABILITY THEORY APPLICATION IN DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCHES
Ivanyuk Aleksandr Maksimovich, Danilov Vladimir Vasil'evich
Petersburg State Transport University
Abstract. In the article the effectiveness of reliability theory application in the analysis of demographic patterns is shown by concrete examples. The duration of delivery act, or "birth shock", as the reliability parameter of the biological system determines infant mortality and the average life expectancy of population. The disgenetic "firstborn effect" as the mechanism of antiselection is discussed for the first time.
Key words and phrases: интенсивность смертности, длительность родов, "эффект первенцев", функция Мейкема, демографические функции, mortality intensity, duration of act of delivery, "firstborn effect", Makeham function, demographic functions
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